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    澳门新濠天地娱乐场

    澳门新濠天地娱乐场:中国信用策略双周报:收益率波动下行 低评级利差走扩

    时间:2018/12/28 16:53:42  作者:  来源:  查看:16  评论:0
    内容摘要:  2018年信用债市场发生了很多历史性的变化,比如违约数量激增、信用分层明显、高收益债群体扩容、政策层出不穷、投资者风险偏好巨变。在新年即将到来之际,我们从债券违约、一级发行及二级市场走势等角度对跌宕起伏的2018年信用债市场进行回顾总结,以更好地总结经验,备战来年。  一、信...
      2018年信用债市场发生了很多历史性的变化,比如违约数量激增、信用分层明显、高收益债群体扩容、政策层出不穷、投资者风险偏好巨变。在新年即将到来之际,我们从债券违约、一级发行及二级市场走势等角度对跌宕起伏的2018年信用债市场进行回顾总结,以更好地总结经验,备战来年。

      一、信用违约激增、民企超九成

      18年截至12月27日,信用债市场新增实质违约发行人共41家,违约债券110支,总违约债券涉及本金金额1116亿。从14年第一支违约债算起,截至目前中国信用债市场历史累计债券实质违约的发行人共72家,确认违约的债券共194支,违约本金共1850亿。也就是说,18年违约债券量达到了历史累计违约总量的60%。好在中国非金融类信用债市场规模很大,该违约量与19.5万亿的存量相比,累计占比大约0.95%,仍未超过1%。不过如果加上这些违约发行人目前还未到期(未确认违约)的债券,违约发行人涉及存续债券量共2455亿,累计违约率大约1.26%。总结来看,18年债券违约具有如下特征:

      1、历史来看18年债券违约总量创新高。

      14年仅有超日债一单违约,15和16年新增违约发行人分别为9家和15家。17年由于产能过剩行业盈利和融资环境好转,加上19大前后市场维稳压力较大,新增违约发行人数量降低至6家。18年以来金融去杠杆引发信用收缩,违约数量激增,新增违约发行人家数、违约债券支数和违约金额与此前的16年历史高点相比都是2倍以上的规模,与历史以来信用债市场违约总量比,占比均达60%左右。


    2、年内时间分布上主要集中在下半年,尤其三季度。2、年内时间分布上主要集中在下半年,尤其三季度。
      18年的债券违约从季度分布看,一季度、二季度、三季度和四季度截至目前首次违约发行人家数分别为3家、7家、17家和14家,明显集中于下半年。从四季度截至目前的情况看,新增违约发行人数量没有明显比三季度减少。10月中下旬民企支持政策密集出台后,10月下旬到11月中旬一度有所放缓,但11月下旬开始又陆续增加,而且由于前期违约的发行人还有债券陆续到期确认违约,四季度违约的债券总规模仍然比较大。尤其是考虑到7月下旬到8月上旬宽信用政策出台,下半年违约不但没有减少反而还增多了,一方面与下半年低资质信用债特别是非公开公司债到期回售集中有关,另一方面也反映出宽信用政策并未缓解最差企业的融资问题,信用债市场仍然呈现明显的市场风险偏好不足和信用分层问题。

    3、违约主体中民企占比超九成,违约率显著高于国企。3、违约主体中民企占比超九成,违约率显著高于国企。
      18年非国企债券实质违约的新增违约发行人共37家,违约债券103支,总违约债券本金金额1072亿,占全市场违约的9成以上。与非国企信用债2.6万亿的存量相比,非国企18年单年的违约率已经超过4%。截至目前,信用债市场实质违约的非国企发行人共60家,确认违约的债券共160支,违约本金共1588亿,与非国企信用债2.6万亿的存量相比,累计占比达到6.02%。如果加上这些违约发行人目前还未到期(未确认违约)的债券,违约非国企发行人涉及存续债券量共2139亿,与非国企信用债2.6万亿的存量相比,累计占比已达到8.11%,明显高于信用债市场整体违约率。18年违约集中于非国企,与非国企再融资渠道相对狭窄,更易受到金融严监管背景下再融资渠道收紧的影响有关,同时今年的很多违约案例也暴露出民企普遍存在的公司治理和内控环节偏弱的问题。


    4、行业特征不明显,再融资收缩环境下没有行业绝对安全。4、行业特征不明显,再融资收缩环境下没有行业绝对安全。
      从18年41家信用债违约发行人的行业分布看,除6家仅发行过私募债券无中金行业分类外,其余35家发行人行业整体比较分散,共分布于18个中金行业。过去几年信用风险高发的时期,都与经济下行、行业景气下行有关,违约一般具有典型的行业特征。如14-15年新增违约券多为新能源行业,与行业前期蜂拥投资,而欧债危机导致欧洲行业补贴和出口需求大幅下滑导致产品价格大幅下跌、企业盈利显著恶化有关。15年底-16年新增违约多为煤钢为代表的“产能过剩”行业,由于15年经济下行、产品价格大幅下跌,发行人盈利大幅恶化乃至巨亏导致违约。而18年以来新增的违约发行人行业共性主要是现金流不佳、过去几年杠杆快速提升、对非标和债券的融资依赖强、18年遭遇了明显的融资渠道收紧。在再融资收紧的环境下,没有哪个行业是绝对安全的。

      5、债券“花样”违约增多。

      传统的到期、付息违约逐步演化出更多非典型性违约与不规范兑付,如交叉违约、债务展期、私下兑付、提前到期违约等,投资者可能以各种形式遭受损失,债券投资者给予特殊优待的可能性也在下降。例如今年违约的债券的案例中,16弘债02和16盛运01均公告回售延期,13永泰债、15宏图MTN001公告和投资者协商债务展期,15金茂债公告指定投资者回售由中登办理、未指定投资者回售由公司与相关投资者达成的安排执行私下兑付,16金茂01也与投资者协商提前回售但部分投资者应按照与发行人达成的偿债安排申报回售。此外,近期发行人破产进程明显加速,甚至有部分发行人债券尚未到期就由于进入破产程序导致所有债务同时到期触发违约,如洪业化工破产重整导致其3支存续债券提前到期违约、山东大海集团破产导致其存续债券17大海01提前到期违约。

      6、永续债递延展期案例增加,虽然从募集条款层面上并不属于违约但仍可能使投资者面临损失。

      截至目前共计11支永续债券合计177亿元公告进行递延展期,其中18年新增9支永续债券合计132亿元公告递延展期,数量明显增加。上述11支永续债中,利息递延的永续债包括15中城建MTN002和17凤凰MTN002,中城建在公告利息递延之前已有多支债券发生实质性违约,而凤凰为海航集团实际控制企业,海航系发行主体18年以来信用事件频发,除8月17美兰机场SCP002本金延迟支付,10月永续中票15海南航空MTN001(3+N期限)展期,还有海航创新(2.880, 0.11, 3.97%)信托逾期及海航系密集评级关注等。在票面利率重置日选择展期的个券共9支,涉及金额合计147亿元,其中14首创集团可续期债01/02、15中电投可续期债、15山煤MTN001、15北大荒(8.560, 0.05, 0.59%)MTN002和16广州地铁可续期债01根据募集条款规定展期后票面利率均不加点,投资者选择续期主因节约融资成本。而15森工集MTN001、15宜化化工MTN002和15海南航空MTN001在展期后票面利率均调整为当期基准利率+初始利差+300bp。在票面利率大幅跳升的情况下,发行人仍选择不赎回的永续债,通常反映出公司资金链紧张,再融资困难。

    18年新增违约债券明细列表请见图表7和图表8。18年新增违约债券明细列表请见图表7和图表8。

    二、一级供给复苏,结构性问题仍存二、一级供给复苏,结构性问题仍存
      18年在利率债和高等级市场环境良好,债券融资成本相比贷款重新凸显,以及下半年资管新规过渡期要求放松、民企等各项支持政策出台的情况下,信用债发行量相比17年明显恢复。根据目前统计,18年非金融类信用债发行量已达7.51万亿,比17年增长超33%,净增量1.69万亿。虽然与15-16年3万亿左右的净增量还有差距,但相比17年不到3000亿的历史低点已有显著反弹。


      1、分品种看,发行量最大的是短融,而净增贡献最多的是中票和公募公司债,各券种中仅企业债发行量同比下降,定向工具和企业债净增量为负。

      发行量方面,银行间债务融资工具仍然是供给大户,7.51万亿的发行量中短融超短融合计贡献了3.13万亿,占比在四成以上,较17年增长31.5%;中票的发行量也达1.7万亿,占比约23%,较去年增长60%以上。仅次于短融中票发行量的是公、私募公司债,两者发行量分别为1.01和0.65万亿元,同比增幅分别为79%和21%。定向工具的发行量5339亿,也较17年增长14%左右。各券种中只有企业债的发行量是同比下降的,目前发行规模0.49亿元,较17年下降约20%。净增方面,只有企业债和定向工具的净增为负。净增量贡献最大的是中票和公募公司债,分别达到0.80和0.66万亿,占比47%和39%。短融和超短融多为滚动续发,扣除到期后净增0.41万亿。私募品种中私募公司债的净增0.20万亿。与17年相比,短融净增量由负转正,中票和公募公司债净增量分别为17年的3.3倍和1.7倍,私募公司债净增量同比下降50%,主因到期量大幅增长。企业债和定向工具净增量连续两年均为负,但定向工具净减少量有小幅收窄而企业债由于发行量较少而到期量增长,净增量由17年的-110亿元大幅增至-2720亿元。



      2、月度分布看,信用债一级的供给受市场环境影响呈现波动。高资质发行人债券发行量主要取决于债券融资成本与贷款融资成本的对比,而低资质发行人债券发行量则主要取决于市场风险偏好的恢复程度。

      18年信用债供给月度变化主要可分为以下几个阶段:

      (1)1-4月信用债一级逐步恢复。尤其是3月和4月发行量分别达到8400和9100亿元,净增量也均在3000亿元以上,为全年的最高峰水平。1月和2月受节假日影响发行窗口较少,且跨年资金相对较紧,对信用债一级需求也有限。从3月开始,资产表外转表内,银行贷款额度紧张,债券发行人贷款利率上浮的情况普遍要比去年严重,而信用债融资成本逐步回落至贷款基准利率以下,而比价效应带来的供给反弹更加明显。

      (2)5-6月,信用债一级供给快速萎缩。5月和6月的发行量均不足4500亿元,仅为3、4月的五成左右水平,扣除到期后,净增分别仅有-800和300亿元,5月是除2月以外的全年净增最低水平。5月供给量下降存在补年报的季节性原因,但与往年同期相比,今年5月的发行量下滑更明显。这一方面与资管新规落地理财整改压力大、风险偏好下行走在规模收缩之前有关,另一方面也由于信用事件频发并且出现华信等高评级、债券存量高的新增违约发行人导致市场规避情绪发酵、风险偏好降低也有很大关系。

      (3)7-8月高等级信用债供给显著增长。宽信用组合拳出台,包括窗口指导MLF支持信贷投放和信用债投资、资管新规过渡期整改要求有所放松、国务院常务会议强调保障融资平台合理融资需求等,与此同时5年AAA收益率已下行至贷款基准以下,信用债一级供给恢复,尤其是来自高等级发行人的发行量大量增加。不过由于7月和8月新增信用风险事件也明显增长,市场对于低资质发行人的偏好仍低,整体来看7月和8月的信用债发行量分别在6500和8000亿元左右,扣除到期后的净增分别达到1550和2700亿元,较5月和6月已有明显增长,但与3-4月的供给水平仍有较大差距。

      (4)9月净增再次转负。跨季资金面收紧,地方债供给较大产生“挤出”效应,信用债收益率回调(与贷款的比价效应减弱),叠加信用违约事件频发,一级供给再次下降,发行量和净增量分别为5500和-380亿元。

      (5)4季度来供给恢复。信用债收益率再度下行,市场情绪好转,叠加民企扶持政策陆续出台,10月下旬以来违约减少,低资质、民企的信用债融资有所恢复。10-12月的发行量分别为6300、8300和7200亿元,净增量分别为1100、2600和2400亿元。



      3、发行期限明显集中于中短期限,尤其是3年以内债券占比进一步提升,这一方面与资管新规2020年底的过渡期导致市场对于长期限信用债需求有限有关,另一方面也是由于信用事件频发的环境下投资者对低资质发行人的长期前景缺乏信心。

      根据我们的统计,18年全年非金融类信用债总发行量7.51万亿,其中发行或回售期限在1年以内的占比44.4%(其中短融和超短融发行量3.13万亿,占比42%,私募品种也有一些1年期发行),1-3年(含)占比42%,也就是说18年信用债发行中3年以内品种占比达到86%,3年以上占比只有14%,5年以上占比只有4%。而17年全年所发行的非金融类信用债中,发行或回售期限在1年以内的占比43.8%,1-3年的占比34.6%,3-5年和5年以上的占比分别为14.48%和7.13%。


      4、信用债发行明显集中于高评级和国企债券。18年AAA级信用债净增量超过了全部信用债总净增量,AA及以下评级债券净增量只有-3500亿,非国有企业发行人信用债净融资也仅80亿元左右,相比17年均明显减少。

      分主体评级来看,18年全年非金融类信用债总净增量1.69万亿,同期AAA级信用债净增量1.77万亿,超过了全部信用债总净增量,AA及以下评级(含无评级)总净增量为-3500亿。而17年全年AA及以下评级债券净融资量为2200亿,占当年信用债全部净融资量的93%。分企业性质来看,18年全年非国有企业的信用债净增量合计约80亿元,国有企业几乎贡献了全部净增。而17年全年非国有企业和国有企业发行人的信用债净融资量分别为1400亿元和1000亿元,17年非国有企业的净增甚至超过了国有企业。月度分布上来看,18年全年AA及以下(含无评级)净增为正的月份仅有11月和12月,与前文提到的10月底民企扶持政策密集出台,市场风险偏好有所改善有关。其余10个月的单月净增均为负,其中5-10月净融资缺口均较高,这六个月的AA及以下(含无评级)发行人的信用债净融资量合计达到-3100亿元。与资管新规落地和信用风险事件频发导致市场风险偏好急剧下降有关。18年非国有企业单月净增为正的月份为3月、4月、8月、11月和12月,均是市场情绪较好的期间,不过整体净增规模仍很小。



      三、收益率波动下行、低评级利差走扩

      (一)2018年信用债收益率整体变化情况

      1、收益率整体跟随利率债下行,曲线形态陡峭化。

      18年信用债收益率整体跟随基准利率呈下行态势,按照中债估值曲线计算,18年内1-5年政策性银行债收益率下行120-180bp,信用债下行80-160bp。其中短端下行幅度更大,短融收益率整体下行了150bp左右,曲线形态陡峭化。节奏上看,收益率下行比较快的时段主要是4月和7月,前者主要受到政策真空期以及降准影响,后者主要受到宽信用政策出台。其后的5-6月和8-9月有所调整,前者主要源自资管新规落地,后者来自利率债上行带动和违约频发。分评级看,中低等级的收益率下行主要是在下半年完成的,受益于各项民企、小微和城投平台融资支持政策。但中低等级中个券的分化也非常严重,中债估值只能反映其中资质最好个券的收益率变动情况。


    2、短端和AA级信用利差走扩,但下半年又有压缩2、短端和AA级信用利差走扩,但下半年又有压缩
      按照中债估值计算的信用利差全年看,AA+及以上评级3年期和5年期信用利差压缩或持平为主。而短端和低评级信用利差走扩明显,前者源于货币市场利率快速下行,短融收益率下行幅度不及同期限政策银行债,后者源于违约风险加大和市场风险偏好下降下信用利差对违约风险反映得更为充分。不过信用利差的走扩主要出现在上半年,尤其是二季度,下半年以小幅压缩为主,尤其短融利差下半年压缩比较明显。以AAA和AA级之间利差的变化来看,上半年尤其是二季度评级间利差明显走扩,但下半年尤其进入四季度后开始有所回落。

    (二)以5年中票为例看18年信用债走势(二)以5年中票为例看18年信用债走势
      18年收益率虽然整体出现大幅下行,但是波动加大。为了更好地理解18年信用债收益率的波动和相关驱动因素,我们按照基准利率的走势将18年市场划分为五个阶段进行回顾。另外在信用债的多个品种中,由于短融受资金面影响波动较大,影响因素也更为复杂,我们本部分主要以5年中票为例进行加以说明。收益率数据来源为各评级5年中票中债收益率曲线,信用利差按照相应中票收益率与5年政策银行债收益率差值计算。如图表20和21可以看到,18年内5年期AAA和AA评级中票收益率曾达到历史92%和77%分位数的历史较高水平——分别为5.47%和5.98%,年内收益率最低点也达到了历史21%和29%分位数的较低水平——分别为3.99%和5%。5年期AAA和AA评级中票的信用利差最高分别达到过历史52%和53%分位数水平——分别为62bp和153bp,即最高曾达到过历史中值附近,但年内最低点只有历史6%和7%分位数——分别为24bp和85bp。



      1、18年初到4月中旬:17年底在资金面紧张、监管政策频发以及信用事件频出的影响下,信用债收益率出现大幅上行,估值全线上行至5%以上。进入18年,在资金面转松以及前期攀升的短端收益率吸引力增强的情况下,短端信用债率先做出反应,收益率出现较大幅度下行,但市场对中长久期品种仍然较为谨慎,收益率以窄幅波动为主。直到春节过后,在利率债供给收缩,监管政策喘息、海外市场risk-off风波后,利率债收益率也开始大幅下行。信用债收益率在利率债带动下,中长端跟随走低,行情一直持续到4月份,并且在央行宣布定向降准以后市场情绪达到高潮。信用利差方面, 1月利率债收益率一度上行使得信用利差被动收窄,而3月下旬受到贸易战避险情绪影响,利率债收益率下行幅度大于信用债下行幅度,信用利差被动走扩,其余时间信用债和利率债走势基本相同,信用利差处于窄幅波动当中。


      2、4月下旬到5月中旬:资管新规以及银行大额风险暴露管理办法正式落地导致需求情绪低迷,叠加基本面数据偏强,中长端利率债出现一定调整。信用债一方面受到利率债调整影响,另一方面一季度市场走强也透支了部分需求,跟随利率债出现回调。不过信用债和利率债调整幅度接近,信用利差在此段时间整体变动不大。


      3、5月下旬到8月初:从5月下旬开始,海内外事件以及贸易战不确定性增强影响,利率债收益率波动加大。直到6月份公布5月社融低于预期,之后央行未跟随美联储加息提振债市情绪,叠加5月经济数据偏弱、贸易摩擦升级,助推收益率出现持续下行。此段时间信用债收益率开始出现分化,AAA评级信用债收益率基本跟随政策性银行债收益率走势,但是AA评级信用债却受到信用风险事件增多和市场信用风险偏好持续下降影响,收益率出现一定上行。直到7月初金融委等监管机构表态传达出维稳意图,宽信用政策陆续出台,AA评级收益率也开始出现下行。信用利差方面,AAA评级信用利差在该期间内整体平稳有小幅上行。而AA评级中票收益率5月下旬至6月底逆市上行,导致信用利差明显走扩,7月有所收窄。


      4、8月初到9月下旬:8月初央行暂停逆回购操作,并且受到缴税影响,资金面边际收紧。利率债受资金面变化、通胀数据超预期以及地方政府债券供给放量影响有所调整,信用债受到违约增多影响收益率也明显回调,前期火爆的市场情绪有所冷却。信用利差方面,8月中上旬信用债收益率上行速度要快于同期限政金债,信用利差整体有所走扩。随后利率债收益率加速上行使得信用利差被动收窄,进入9月之后基本保持平稳。


      5、9月下旬至今:跨过季末,银行间市场流动性整体较为充裕,十一假期最后一天央行宣布降准一个百分点对于市场情绪有较大提振,叠加地方债供给高峰过去,市场对其他利率债品种需求较好。基本面方面,9月份金融数据可比口径增速仍在下行,经济数据大幅低于市场预期,四季度的经济金融数据也继续走弱,推动利率债收益率再度大幅下行。信用债在降准后两天中,高等级品种收益率也出现快速下行,信用利差有小幅压缩,之后受到民营和小微企业扶持政策推动,AA评级收益率下行幅度一度大于AAA级,信用利差也有回落。11月下旬信用利差有一定走扩主要是由于政金债一级市场中标收益率大幅下降推动估值收益率大幅下调,但市场二级收益率水平高于估值,因此市场实际情况看信用利差并没有显著反弹。

    (三)信用债投资者结构变化(三)信用债投资者结构变化
      资管新规落地过程中,以理财为主的广义基金在信用债投资者结构中占比提升的势头放缓,银行占比有所恢复。我们在之前的报告中多次提到过,从10年开始,信用债主要投资者结构就开始发生较大变化,主要是由于银行表外理财的扩张导致广义基金持有信用债的比例开始大幅增长,同时推动商业银行持有信用债的比例不断压缩。具体来看,广义基金持有信用债比例由10年的18%上升至2017年的62%,商业银行持有信用债比例由10年的50%下降至17年的18%。从17年开始伴随金融去杠杆进程加快,表外理财规模扩张停滞,广义基金持有信用债的比例增速开始放慢。2018年11月底相比17年底,广义基金持有信用债比例仅由61.56%小幅上升至63.17%,环比增加1.61%,而商业银行持有信用债比例由18.37%上升至18.67%,是2010年以来的首次回升。其他投资者如证券公司18年也有所增持信用债,比例由3.37%上升至4.77%,环比上升1.4%,而交易所投资者持有信用债比例环比下降2.27%。


      不过广义基金18年持有信用债的规模和市场份额仍然是上升的,品种上主要增持了中票、减持了企业债。另外广义基金增持同业存单的规模超过了信用债,说明久期和风险偏好有所降低。18年截至11月末,广义基金整体增持信用债5798亿元,其中减持企业债2696亿元(不含铁道债),增持短融超短融3260亿元,增持中票5233亿元。18年广义基金也增持了6944利率债(包括国债、政金债和地方政府债)和10580亿元同业存单,其中同业存单净增持量比利率债和信用债的净增持量都要多。这一方面由于18年货基规模的快速增长(1.6万亿),另一方面也说明以理财为代表的广义基金在资管新规落地后风险和久期偏好整体有所降低。

    (四)18年底信用债收益率和信用利差情况(四)18年底信用债收益率和信用利差情况
      经过一年的收益率回落,信用债收益率从年初的全线5%以上基本回到全线5%以下。如果不考虑个券差异,仅看中债估值(图表29),目前AA及以上评级短融中票收益率都低于历史中值,整体在20-40%分位数区间。按照中债短融中票估值曲线计算(图表30),短融信用利差处于历史75-85%分位数左右,3年期和5年期品种信用利差均在历史中位数以下,AA级相比年初有所恢复但3年期品种利差仍然偏低。


      正如我们在年度策略展望报告中提到,在收益已经明显下行信用利差保护空间又没有充分恢复的情况下,在信用债中寻找估值洼地将越来越困难。要在控制风险的前提下发现超额收益机会,必须深入研究每一个细分行业的需求走势,跟踪每一个板块的政策风向,甄别每一支个券的信用状况,付出的精力和成本会比往年更高。展望明年,在宏观经济下行压力加大、资金面相对宽松但市场整体风险偏好难以有效提升的背景下,信用债内部板块分化将更加剧烈。高资质信用债的稀缺性会变得更强,信用利差有望继续维持低位甚至进一步压缩,但高低资质品种之间利差仍存在走扩的风险,信用下沉尚待时日。

      近期信用事件总结

      最近两周信用事件包括四类:

      一、12月有10家发行人的11支债券发生实质违约,其中新增违约发行人为洛娃、永泰集团、银亿三家。违约债券信息如图表31所示,首次违约发行人具体资质详见相关简评。其中17洛娃科技CP001曾于违约次日承诺“10个工作日内偿还”,但截至承诺日20日终未完成兑付,并且触发18MTN001交叉违约条款导致其违约。公司披露目前有未抵押不动产账面值59.3亿元、日化或乳品产品可能引入战略投资者或出让股权。18永泰集团SCP001今年8月获得发行人实际控制人王广西追加担保,公司已成立债委会,后续追偿可能需视债委会所有债务处置进度进行。15银亿01是比较典型的房地产公募债务违约案例,而房地产行业今年起债券到期压力大叠加融资环境收紧,行业整体风险加大。此前已违约发行人中,凯迪、华信、华阳经贸、雏鹰、宏图高科(3.630, 0.06, 1.68%)、五洋、中弘均有债券确认违约,其中五洋建设被申请破产重整,获得法院裁定受理,相关债券视同到期违约;18洛娃科技MTN001触发交叉违约未获豁免确认违约;15华信债、16中弘01触发提前到期和加速清偿确认违约。


      二、12月18日,债券发行人凤凰公告,其应于12月20日付息的永续中票17凤凰MTN002决定递延支付当期利息。17凤凰MTN002为3+N永续中票,每3年重置票面利率,如首个赎回日发行人不行使赎回权,从第4年开始票面利率在重定价时需加300bp。同时赋予了发行人递延支付利息条款,强制付息事件包括分红和减资,并且针对延期支付的利息部分并未有惩罚性罚息或加点计算复利。从公司层面看,凤凰机场是海航集团下属企业,主业相对稳定,但现金流受关联方资金往来和股权投资影响巨大,流动性压力大,此前8月17日17美兰机场SCP002本金延迟支付,10月15日海南航空MTN001重置票面利率加点300bp条件下仍选择续期,还有海航创新信托逾期及评级公司密切关注等事件,都反映了整个集团内部现金流的紧张和信用风险的上升。

      如市场部分所述,今年以来永续债品种发行人在赎回日选择不赎回的案例逐步增多。根据我们统计,19年进入行权期的永续债规模达到1800亿元以上,其中主体评级在AA及以下的81亿元,主体为非国企的144亿元,这类低资质发行人即使在续期加点的情况下也有可能选择续期。此外有10支债券合计规模188亿元条款设置为选择续期后下一期票面利率不加点,这类债券“永续”可能性也较高,提醒投资者关注。


      三、近期有城投平台公开披露拟分期延期偿还到期债务。12月14日鹏元将金财金鑫列入观察名单,发行人为四川巴中平昌县城投,也涉及非标展期事宜。中电投先融(上海)资产管理公司16年10月设立的“锐鑫1号”和“锐鑫2号”规模合计3亿元,期限2年,资金用于认购金财金鑫拥有的对平昌县财政局4亿元应收账款债权,如平昌县财政局未按时足额偿还应收款,公司应支付差额款项。公司应于18年10月14日、21日、31日和11月7日分期偿还3亿元债权转让款,10月19日双方签署了《延期还款协议》,公司将在19年7月20日前分期清偿。


      金财金鑫所在地平昌县财力弱,公司存续公募债均有专业担保公司提供担保,能够提供一定保障。金财金鑫所在区域平昌县17年一般预算收入仅8亿元,公司仅有一期企业债17川金财债存续,金额10亿元,由重庆兴农担保公司提供担保,可提供一定保障。

      城投平台非标逾期已经屡见不鲜,但大部分很快偿还或处于拖延状态,如平昌城投这种明确分期偿还的还比较少见。101号文发布后,城投债务展期、重组方式处置的可能会越来越多。我们在18年4-8月策略周报中多次整理过当时有公开报道的城投非标违约案例,涉及天津、云南、四川、河南、湖北、贵州、湖南、内蒙等多个省份,后续处置或是很快偿还,或是公开无报道处于拖延状态。10月30日下发的国办发[2018]101号文的三、(六)明确提到,“在不增加地方政府隐性债务规模的前提下,对存量隐性债务难以偿还的,允许融资平台公司在与金融机构协商的基础上采取适当展期、债务重组等方式维持资金周转”,近期平昌城投明确采取展期分期偿还的方式解决债务问题,不排除是在101号文精神下典型的城投债务处置形式,后续这类案例可能会增加,或将引发相关城投债券估值的扰动,值得投资者关注。

      四、此外还有两家民企暴露严重负面事件,康得新(7.640, 0.09, 1.19%)评级下调和美元债大幅下跌,华映科技(1.870, 0.00, 0.00%)母公司申请重整导致公司面临实际控制人变更和应收款难以回收等风险。

      1、康得新美元债曾大幅下跌,穆迪将其评级由B1下调两档至B3。我们曾于11月2日策略周报中对康得新基本面及前期事宜进行了详细分析,包括公司虽然账面流动性充裕,但大量拟现金投资项目对现金消耗较多,而且由于深交所问询、证监会调查、多次负面评级行动、停牌定增困难、股东流动性恶化且股票质押率高等负面事件,公司再融资难度上升,详见当期报告。近期,公司境内外债券收益率均出现比较大幅度的上升。公司境内共4期银行间债券存续,金额35亿元,其中18康得新SCP001将于19年1月到期,21日以87元(估值99.88元)的价格成交0.4亿元;境外美元债为子公司Top Wise发行、公司担保的,发行额3亿美元,应于20年3月到期,17日到期收益率由30%大幅抬升至62%,净价大幅下跌27%至55.7元,此后基本维持在55-56元之间。考虑到公司资金面趋于紧张,评级下调可能进一步加大其再融资难度。


      2、华映科技母公司中华映管债务逾期申请重整,导致公司存在控股股东及实际控制人变更以及应收款项无法收回等风险,中诚信将公司列入可能降级的观察名单。华映科技是台资企业中华映管实际控制的深交所上市公司,国内液晶模组龙头企业之一。12月14日,公司发布公告,实际控制人中华映管、公司直接控股股东中华映管(百慕大)均发生债务无法清偿,董事会依据相关法规申请重整,同时华映百慕大持有公司股份已质押比例高达99.82%。该事件可能导致公司控股股东和实际控制人发生变更,并且公司应收中华映管款项可能无法收回(截至18年11月30日应收31.5亿元,其中已有17.6亿元逾期)。此后公司董事长、监事辞职,中诚信将公司列入可能降级的观察名单。关于事件及对公司的分析,请参考我们24日发布的评级调整周报。总结来看,华映科技的业务订单主要来自控股股东,17年销售额占比达55.6%,其经营方面对股东依赖度高,如控股股东破产重整将直接导致公司营收大幅下降;同时控股股东重整可能引发融资风险,而应收款大量不能回收可能造成大额亏损。公司目前仅剩一期CP存续,本金2亿元,19年1月23日到期,提醒投资者关注公司债券兑付情况。

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